More tropical disturbances in the Atlantic - Tropical Weather Bulletin Oct 4, 2022

With Hurricane Orlene dying out over Mexico, attention turns back to the Atlantic, where two areas of interest could form in the next five days. The eastern one, to the southwest of Cape Verde, has a high chance of developing soon, and is showing decent convection and a broad influence of showers and rotation. To the west, an area of interest that currently looks unassuming is about to reach the Windward islands, and further down the line this system could develop into our next storm in the Caribbean Sea.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropcial Storm Paine formed earlier today from the area of interest that emerged behind Orlene, to its southwest. This system is expected to wander northwestwards and gain very little strength as it continues away from land. To its east is another area of interest, currently rated at a low chance of formation, and will also likely remain weak and short lived.

In the Indian Ocean, we may potentially see a fourth tropical cyclone form in the Southern half in the next couple of days, marked as a high chance of development - all this occurring before the traditional start of the cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere. In the North Indian Ocean, a small area of convection has been blowing up along the Indian coast, and has a low chance of development.

In the Western Pacific, the remnants of Typhoon Roke persist for a little longer, well to the east of Japan.

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